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Dollar recovers vs the yen as U.S. data soothes market nerves

Dollar recovers vs the yen as U.S. data soothes market nerves

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar rebounded and rose against the yen on Thursday as better-than-expected retail sales data in the United States helped offset fears that the U.S. economy could be headed for a recession.

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FILE PHOTO: Japan Yen and U.S. Dollar notes are seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration Foreign exchange markets have remained relatively calm despite big moves in bond markets this week, where investors have piled into government debt in anticipation of a global growth slowdown.

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But the safe-haven Japanese yen has strengthened as investors looked for safety.

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After earlier rising as European stock markets fell and investors flooded into safer assets, the yen then weakened. Data showing a bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales in July boosted the dollar

The latest turbulence in financial markets was triggered by the first inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve US2US10=TWEB for 12 years

Such an inversion, where two-year yields trade higher than 10-year yields, has preceded previous economic recessions

“Market-related headlines this morning have been dominated by yield curve inversion and the recessionary implications that follow,” Rabobank said in a note to clients

Sentiment was already fragile after economic data from China and Germany earlier in the week revealed the extent of the damage the China-U.S. trade dispute is causing to the world economy

The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 106.19 JPY=EBS

On Wednesday, the yen had rallied 0.8% against the greenback, its biggest daily gain in two weeks

The dollar index .DXY, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, erased its earlier losses and was last at 97.949, unchanged on the day

The euro edged higher against the dollar, rising 0.1% to $1.1145 EUR=EBS

The euro was also ahead against the Swiss franc, rising 0.2% to 1.0863 francs per euro EURCHF=EBS

NORWAY’S CROWN FALLS Elsewhere, Norway’s crown weakened after its central bank, the Norges Bank, said its policy outlook was now more uncertain, raising doubts about whether it would raise rates later in 2019

The central bank has been an outlier with its plans to hike rates while most policymakers turn more dovish in the face of worsening global growth

“We regard this as a signal that Norges Bank wants to gain flexibility in order to evaluate important incoming domestic data and global developments before deciding on the next possible rate hike,” said SEB strategist Erica Blomgren Dalstø

The crown was last down 0.1% against the euro at 10.019 crowns EURNOK=D3

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 rose as much as 0.5% to $0.6791 after data showed the Australian economy had added a forecast-busting 41,100 new jobs in July

FILE PHOTO: A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration However, reflecting the rising global economic risks, futures markets still imply an 84% chance of a quarter-point rate cut to 0.75% in October, with a cut by November seen as certain

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle highlighted the risks from the trade war in a speech on Thursday, saying it could trigger a self-fulfilling global downturn

Sterling rallied to $1.2122, up 0.5% on the day GBP=D3 , on better-than-expected retail sales data for July and hopes that a no-deal Brexit can be avoided

Editing by Angus MacSwan, Hugh Lawson and Kevin Liffey